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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.