Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Data

The average figure of daily homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new official figures. But, public safety experts have warned that murder numbers could fail to indicate enhanced national security.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the head of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had during these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily military campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an seemingly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it may hide periods when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Using the daily average renders spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.